Risk Assessment of Suppliers Due to COVID-19 Impact, 2021

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If your job requires you to minimize your supply chain risk, you are familiar with ‘Supply Chain Disruptions’. That means, you are always evaluating the probability and severity of underlying factors such as pandemics, natural disasters, breakdowns of the transport network, and many more that may impact your business.

Last year one of the managers from a Fortune 100 company, asked us to evaluate the level of risk for their critical tier-1 suppliers due to COVID-19. We are sharing here what we developed and delivered within a week. We have tracked the situation by States and Counties since last year and concluded the study in April of 2021.

You will find the description at the bottom of the spreadsheet shown below detailing how we created it. We took the snapshot every other week and pulled the raw data from our Covid-19 tracker on Saturday to get the 5 Day Moving Average. The criteria and assumptions we made are solely ours. These may or may not apply to your situation. If they do make sense, feel free use them, or change the criteria as it fits your specific situation, if the current pandemic continues or worsens.

We also wanted to give you a sense of severity and impact on supply chain due to the current pandemic. Here is a quick summary: In a study conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), dated March 11, 2020, 75% of companies reported supply disruptions, and 16% of those companies have adjusted their revenue targets downward because of the COVID-19 outbreak.

On June, 2021, ISM published a follow up survey results where 64% respondents feel better for the second half of 2021.